Championship · England · Regular Season - 5

Sheffield Utd–Norwich

1–3

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 5 September 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Bramall Lane, Sheffield

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 37%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'NorwichA. Musaba (assist: P. Mattsson)
23'Sheffield UtdP. Bamford (assist: T. Campbell)
44'NorwichM. Touré (assist: A. Ben Slimane)
62'NorwichM. Kvistgaarden

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sheffield Utd		Norwich
11	Shots	19
4	Shots on target	8
9	Shots inside the box	14
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	4
6	Offsides	3
46%	Possession	54%
371	Passes	444
283	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sheffield Utd 1.61 · Norwich 1.21. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Sheffield Utd 11 · Norwich 19; on target 4 and 8.

Unavailable players

Sheffield Utd

F. Serikiout · not in squad
H. Burrowsout · not in squad
R. Oneout · Hamstring Injury
T. Chongout · injury

Norwich

A. Ahmedout · Knee Injury
J. Makamaout · Foot Injury
L. Mahovoout · Ankle Injury
M. Topicout · Knee Injury
P. Maghomadoubtful · Calf Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.8%: “Norwich to win”. Second comes “Sheffield Utd to win” at 36.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.42 for Sheffield Utd, 1.43 for Norwich.
The highest double chance value is 72.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,259 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sheffield Utd to win36.1%

Draw27.1%

Norwich to win36.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

Sheffield Utd lead at half-time35.0%

Level at half-time42.2%

Norwich lead at half-time22.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Sheffield Utd ahead or level77.2%

12 — not level at half-time57.8%

X2 — level or Norwich ahead65.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2259 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sheffield Utd: at least 9Actual: 14
Norwich: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

Sheffield Utd: at least 5Actual: 7
Norwich: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sheffield Utd score1.61

Attack: Sheffield Utd score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Norwich's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.61 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Norwich score1.21

Attack: Norwich score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sheffield Utd's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%1–29.2%2–19.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.