Championship · England · Regular Season - 5

West Brom–Watford

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 5 September 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: The Hawthorns, West Bromwich

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

36'West BromJ. Morgan (assist: Harry Whitwell)

Match statistics

Match statistics
West Brom		Watford
9	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	2
7	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	4
2	Offsides	0
52%	Possession	48%
441	Passes	414
380	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: West Brom 1.49 · Watford 0.97. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots West Brom 9 · Watford 11; on target 4 and 2.

Unavailable players

West Brom

M. Johnstonout · Broken Leg

Watford

J. Grievesout · Lacking Match Fitness
J. Ngakiaout · Thigh Injury
K. Baahout · Knock
M. Bolaout · Hamstring Injury
O. H. Traoreout · injury
T. Akomeahout · Lacking Match Fitness

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

M. Salisbury→

3.76

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.3%: “West Brom to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.67 for West Brom, 1.02 for Watford.
The highest double chance value is 78.3% (1X — West Brom win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,259 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

West Brom to win52.3%

Draw26.1%

Watford to win21.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,541 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

18	Fouls	11

5	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

West Brom lead at half-time38.2%

Level at half-time43.0%

Watford lead at half-time18.8%

First-half double chance

1X — West Brom ahead or level81.2%

12 — not level at half-time57.0%

X2 — level or Watford ahead61.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2259 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

West Brom: at least 8Actual: 18
Watford: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

West Brom: at least 5Actual: 5
Watford: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals West Brom score1.49

Attack: West Brom score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Watford's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Watford score0.97

Attack: Watford score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: West Brom's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.97 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%2–110.6%1–010.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.