Championship · England · Regular Season - 4

West Brom–Charlton

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 2 September 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: The Hawthorns, West Bromwich

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 25%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

59'West BromC. Styles
69'CharltonT. Campbell

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: West Brom 1.51 · Charlton 0.90. On the pitch: 1-1.

Unavailable players

West Brom

M. Johnstonout · Broken Leg

Charlton

B. Koumetioout · Muscle Injury
C. Kelmanout · Shoulder Injury
C. Sichenjeout · Knee Injury
J. Edwardsout · Ankle Injury
K. Ramsayout · Ankle Injury
M. Goddenout · Muscle Injury
N. Chalobahout · Muscle Injury
R. Burkeout · not in squad
W. Mannionout · Shoulder Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Thursday, 17 September 2026 at 06:10.

Referee

Farai Hallam, England→

3.64

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.2%: “West Brom to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.79 for West Brom, 0.95 for Charlton.
The highest double chance value is 81.8% (1X — West Brom win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,252 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

West Brom to win57.2%

Draw24.6%

Charlton to win18.2%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — West Brom win or draw81.8%

12 — any result other than a draw75.4%

X2 — draw or Charlton win42.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.6%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

West Brom lead at half-time36.1%

Level at half-time45.8%

Charlton lead at half-time18.1%

First-half double chance

1X — West Brom ahead or level81.9%

12 — not level at half-time54.2%

X2 — level or Charlton ahead63.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2252 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

West Brom: at least 8
Charlton: at least 11

Corners

West Brom: at least 5
Charlton: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals52.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals West Brom score1.51

Attack: West Brom score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Charlton's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Charlton score0.90

Attack: Charlton score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: West Brom's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.5%2–110.9%1–010.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2252 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 49 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.