Championship · England · Regular Season - 4

Portsmouth–Derby

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Tuesday, 1 September 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Fratton Park, Portsmouth

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 24%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

16'DerbyS. Szmodics (assist: B. Clark)
62'DerbyL. Salvesen (assist: O. Fraulo)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Portsmouth		Derby
21	Shots	8
3	Shots on target	5
10	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
11	Corners	2
0	Offsides	3
65%	Possession	35%
500	Passes	265
424	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Portsmouth 1.37 · Derby 1.19. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Portsmouth 21 · Derby 8; on target 3 and 5.
Portsmouth kept the ball more (65%).

Unavailable players

Portsmouth

C. Ogilvieout · Knee Injury
F. Umehout · Hamstring Injury
J. Bursikout · Calf Injury
J. Farrellout · Groin Injury
J. Murphyout · injury
K. Andersonout · Muscle Injury
M. Kosznovszkyout · Knee Injury
T. Waddinghamout · Ankle Injury

Derby

C. Morrisout · not in squad
D. Murkinout · Hamstring Injury
L. Travisout · injury
M. Clarkeout · Calf Injury
P. Agyemangout · Achilles Tendon Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

S. Allison→

3.89

yellows per match

0.05

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.8%: “Portsmouth to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.54 for Portsmouth, 1.03 for Derby.
The highest double chance value is 76.2% (1X — Portsmouth win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,244 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Portsmouth to win48.8%

Draw27.4%

Derby to win23.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Portsmouth win or draw76.2%

12 — any result other than a draw72.6%

X2 — draw or Derby win51.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.4%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Portsmouth lead at half-time26.1%

Level at half-time42.2%

Derby lead at half-time31.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Portsmouth ahead or level68.3%

12 — not level at half-time57.8%

X2 — level or Derby ahead73.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2244 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Portsmouth: at least 9Actual: 12
Derby: at least 12Actual: 15

Corners

Portsmouth: at least 5Actual: 11
Derby: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (48.3%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Portsmouth score1.37

Attack: Portsmouth score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Derby's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Derby score1.19

Attack: Derby score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Portsmouth's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%1–011.0%2–110.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2244 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 95 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.