Championship · England · Regular Season - 4

Swansea–Watford

2–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 1 September 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'SwanseaEom Ji-Sung (assist: A. Idah)
29'SwanseaA. Idah (assist: Eom Ji-Sung)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Swansea		Watford
18	Shots	9
8	Shots on target	3
10	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	6
5	Corners	3
1	Offsides	4
60%	Possession	40%
577	Passes	374
480	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Swansea 1.45 · Watford 1.02. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Swansea 18 · Watford 9; on target 8 and 3.
Swansea kept the ball more (60%).

Unavailable players

Swansea

B. Cabangoout · not in squad
C. Burgessout · Achilles Tendon Injury
G. Francoout · Ankle Injury

Watford

J. Grievesout · Lacking Match Fitness
J. Ngakiaout · Thigh Injury
K. Baahout · Knock
M. Bolaout · Hamstring Injury
T. Akomeahout · Lacking Match Fitness

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

E. Duckworth→

5.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.7%: “Swansea to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.64 for Swansea, 1.01 for Watford.
The highest double chance value is 78.1% (1X — Swansea win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,244 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Swansea to win51.7%

Draw26.4%

Watford to win21.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

6	Fouls	14

0	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Swansea win or draw78.1%

12 — any result other than a draw73.6%

X2 — draw or Watford win48.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.4%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

Swansea lead at half-time38.3%

Level at half-time42.5%

Watford lead at half-time19.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Swansea ahead or level80.8%

12 — not level at half-time57.5%

X2 — level or Watford ahead61.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2244 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Swansea: at least 8Actual: 6
Watford: at least 12Actual: 14

Corners

Swansea: at least 5Actual: 5
Watford: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals49.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Swansea score1.45

Attack: Swansea score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Watford's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Watford score1.02

Attack: Watford score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Swansea's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.02 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%1–010.8%2–110.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2244 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 187 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.