Championship · England · Regular Season - 4

Preston–Bristol City

1–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Tuesday, 1 September 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Deepdale, Preston

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'Bristol CityS. Twine (assist: L. Tolaj)
51'PrestonC. Wiley
79'Bristol CityL. Eissat (assist: Rio Cardines)
86'Bristol CityD. Ballard

Match statistics

Match statistics
Preston		Bristol City
18	Shots	12
4	Shots on target	7
9	Shots inside the box	9
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	2
2	Offsides	3
52%	Possession	48%
404	Passes	390
314	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Preston 1.39 · Bristol City 1.23. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Preston 18 · Bristol City 12; on target 4 and 7.

Unavailable players

Preston

A. McCannout · injury
B. Pottsout · Ankle Injury
T. Carrollout · Ankle Injury

Bristol City

B. De Keersmaeckerout · Shoulder Injury
L. McNallyout · Knee Injury
E. Adebayodoubtful · not in squad

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

R. Ricardo→

4.50

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

14 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.7%: “Bristol City to win”. Second comes “Preston to win” at 32.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.26 for Preston, 1.42 for Bristol City.
The highest double chance value is 72.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,244 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Preston to win32.4%

Draw27.9%

Bristol City to win39.7%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Preston win or draw60.3%

12 — any result other than a draw72.1%

X2 — draw or Bristol City win67.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.9%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Preston lead at half-time29.5%

Level at half-time42.6%

Bristol City lead at half-time27.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Preston ahead or level72.1%

12 — not level at half-time57.4%

X2 — level or Bristol City ahead70.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2244 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Preston: at least 10Actual: 11
Bristol City: at least 8Actual: 14

Corners

Preston: at least 4Actual: 5
Bristol City: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals50.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Preston score1.39

Attack: Preston score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bristol City's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bristol City score1.23

Attack: Bristol City score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Preston's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%1–29.5%0–18.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2244 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 187 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.