Luxembourg–Malta

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 31 March 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Daniel Siebert, Germany→

2.92

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.6%: “Luxembourg to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.1%.
The highest double chance value is 84.7% (1X — Luxembourg win or draw).
These values were computed from 5,520 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Luxembourg to win58.6%

Draw26.1%

Malta to win15.3%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,696 of 2,854 predictions were correct (59.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Luxembourg win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Luxembourg

Attack: Luxembourg score below the league average (40% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Malta concede 55% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Malta

Attack: Malta score below the league average (49% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Luxembourg's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.