Latvia–Gibraltar

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 31 March 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Sandro Schärer, Switzerland→

4.20

yellows per match

0.40

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 73.4%: “Latvia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.6%.
The highest double chance value is 92.9% (1X — Latvia win or draw).
These values were computed from 5,520 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Latvia to win73.4%

Draw19.6%

Gibraltar to win7.1%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 941 of 1,254 predictions were correct (75.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Latvia win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Latvia

Attack: Latvia score below the league average (45% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Gibraltar concede 113% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Gibraltar

Attack: Gibraltar score below the league average (72% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Latvia concede 26% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.