Gibraltar–Latvia

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 26 March 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Ivan Kružliak, Slovakia→

5.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.0%: “Latvia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.3%.
The highest double chance value is 82.2% (X2 — draw or Latvia win).
These values were computed from 5,464 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Gibraltar to win17.8%

Draw28.3%

Latvia to win54.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,836 of 3,546 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Gibraltar win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Gibraltar

Attack: Gibraltar score below the league average (70% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Latvia concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Latvia

Attack: Latvia score below the league average (44% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Gibraltar concede 114% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.