Portugal–Spain

2–2

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 8 June 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Allianz Arena, Munich

The match was decided on penalties: it was level after 90 minutes and extra time, so it is not used to train the model.

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Sandro Schärer, Switzerland→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.1%: “Portugal to win”. Second comes “Spain to win” at 29.1%.
The highest double chance value is 73.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 4,918 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Portugal to win44.1%

Draw26.9%

Spain to win29.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,399 of 5,395 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Portugal win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Portugal

Attack: Portugal score 102% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Spain concede 49% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Spain

Attack: Spain score 131% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Portugal concede 49% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.