Germany–Portugal

1–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 4 June 2025 at 19:10
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Allianz Arena, Munich

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 28%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Slavko Vinčić, Slovenia→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.8%: “Germany to win”. Second comes “Portugal to win” at 28.4%.
The highest double chance value is 74.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 4,838 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Germany to win45.8%

Draw25.8%

Portugal to win28.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,111 of 4,488 predictions were correct (47.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Germany win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Germany

Attack: Germany score 117% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Portugal concede 48% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Portugal

Attack: Portugal score 100% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Germany concede 35% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.