Portugal–Denmark

5–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 23 March 2025 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio José Alvalade, Lisbon

The match was decided in extra time. The score covers more than 90 minutes, so it is not used to train the model.

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Slavko Vinčić, Slovenia→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.5%: “Portugal to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.4%.
The highest double chance value is 81.9% (1X — Portugal win or draw).
These values were computed from 4,750 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Portugal to win55.5%

Draw26.4%

Denmark to win18.1%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,696 of 2,854 predictions were correct (59.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Portugal win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Portugal

Attack: Portugal score 97% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Denmark concede 50% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Denmark

Attack: Denmark score above the league average (40% more).

Opponent's defence: Portugal concede 50% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.