← Fixtures
UEFA Nations League · Quarter-finals
Spain–
Netherlands
3–3
HT 1–0
- Kick-off
- Sunday, 23 March 2025 at 19:45
- Status
- Match Finished
- Venue
- Estadio de Mestalla, Valdivia
The match was decided on penalties: it was level after 90 minutes and extra time, so it is not used to train the model.
Share on XWhat the model said, and what happened
Ended level — we gave the draw 21%double chance: correct
This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record
Referee
Clement Turpin, France→There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.
Model prediction
Why this prediction?
- The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.8%: “Spain to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.6%.
- The highest double chance value is 87.4% (1X — Spain win or draw).
- These values were computed from 4,750 past matches.
This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.
These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.
Spain to win66.8%
Draw20.6%
Netherlands to win12.6%
When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,059 of 1,563 predictions were correct (67.8%). Accuracy record →
Double chance
1X — Spain win or draw