Scotland–Greece

0–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 23 March 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Hampden Park, Glasgow

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 2.8% between the top twodouble chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Massa, Davide, Italy→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.0%: “Scotland to win”. Second comes “Greece to win” at 33.2%.
The highest double chance value is 69.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 4,745 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Scotland to win36.0%

Draw30.8%

Greece to win33.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,123 of 5,759 predictions were correct (36.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Scotland win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Scotland

Attack: Scotland score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: Greece concede 45% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Greece

Attack: Greece score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Scotland concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.