Slovenia–Slovakia

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 23 March 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Stožice, Ljubljana

The match was decided in extra time. The score covers more than 90 minutes, so it is not used to train the model.

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Istvan Kovacs, Romania→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.2%: “Slovenia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.5%.
The highest double chance value is 75.7% (1X — Slovenia win or draw).
These values were computed from 4,745 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Slovenia to win45.2%

Draw30.5%

Slovakia to win24.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,111 of 4,488 predictions were correct (47.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Slovenia win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Slovenia

Attack: Slovenia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Slovakia concede 31% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Slovakia

Attack: Slovakia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Slovenia concede 35% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.