Hungary–Türkiye

0–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 23 March 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Puskás Aréna, Budapest

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 28%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Felix Zwayer, Germany→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.4%: “Hungary to win”. Second comes “Türkiye to win” at 28.0%.
The highest double chance value is 72.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 4,745 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hungary to win44.4%

Draw27.6%

Türkiye to win28.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,399 of 5,395 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Hungary win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Hungary

Attack: Hungary score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Türkiye's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Türkiye

Attack: Türkiye score above the league average (42% more).

Opponent's defence: Hungary concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.