Iceland–Kosovo

1–3

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 23 March 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia, Murcia

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 23%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Jesus Gil Manzano, Spain→

4.72

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.2%: “Iceland to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.0%.
The highest double chance value is 77.2% (1X — Iceland win or draw).
These values were computed from 4,745 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Iceland to win51.2%

Draw26.0%

Kosovo to win22.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,836 of 3,546 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Iceland win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Iceland

Attack: Iceland score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Kosovo's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Kosovo

Attack: Kosovo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Iceland's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.