Netherlands–Spain

2–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 20 March 2025 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Feijenoord, Rotterdam

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Glenn Nyberg, Sweden→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.6%: “Spain to win”. Second comes “Netherlands to win” at 33.0%.
The highest double chance value is 72.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 4,694 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Netherlands to win33.0%

Draw27.5%

Spain to win39.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,123 of 5,759 predictions were correct (36.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Netherlands win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Netherlands

Attack: Netherlands score 93% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Spain concede 56% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Spain

Attack: Spain score 121% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Netherlands concede 38% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.