Slovakia–Slovenia

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 20 March 2025 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Štadión Tehelné pole, Bratislava

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Maurizio Mariani, Italy→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.2%: “Slovakia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.5%.
The highest double chance value is 73.7% (1X — Slovakia win or draw).
These values were computed from 4,694 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Slovakia to win43.2%

Draw30.5%

Slovenia to win26.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,399 of 5,395 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Slovakia win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Slovakia

Attack: Slovakia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Slovenia concede 33% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Slovenia

Attack: Slovenia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Slovakia concede 30% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.