Ukraine–Belgium

3–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 20 March 2025 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia, Murcia

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Sandro Schärer, Switzerland→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.6%: “Belgium to win”. Second comes “Ukraine to win” at 29.7%.
The highest double chance value is 71.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 4,694 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ukraine to win29.7%

Draw28.7%

Belgium to win41.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,399 of 5,395 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Ukraine win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Ukraine

Attack: Ukraine score above the league average (26% more).

Opponent's defence: Belgium concede 45% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Belgium

Attack: Belgium score 70% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Ukraine concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.