Türkiye–Hungary

3–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 20 March 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Ivan Kružliak, Slovakia→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.8%: “Türkiye to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.9%.
The highest double chance value is 76.7% (1X — Türkiye win or draw).
These values were computed from 4,684 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Türkiye to win49.8%

Draw26.9%

Hungary to win23.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,111 of 4,488 predictions were correct (47.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Türkiye win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Türkiye

Attack: Türkiye score above the league average (39% more).

Opponent's defence: Hungary concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Hungary

Attack: Hungary score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Türkiye's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.