Bosnia & Herzegovina–Netherlands

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Tuesday, 19 November 2024 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Bilino Polje, Zenica

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 17%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Aliyar Aghayev, Azerbaijan→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 76.2%: “Netherlands to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 16.6%.
The highest double chance value is 92.8% (X2 — draw or Netherlands win).
These values were computed from 4,628 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bosnia & Herzegovina to win7.2%

Draw16.6%

Netherlands to win76.2%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 753 of 933 predictions were correct (80.7%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Bosnia & Herzegovina win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Attack: Bosnia & Herzegovina score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Netherlands concede 38% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Netherlands

Attack: Netherlands score 96% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Bosnia & Herzegovina's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.