Malta–Andorra

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 19 November 2024 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Ta'Qali National Stadium, Ta'Qali

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Luka Bilbija, Bosnia & Herzegovina→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.1%: “Malta to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.6%.
The highest double chance value is 83.7% (1X — Malta win or draw).
These values were computed from 4,628 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Malta to win55.1%

Draw28.6%

Andorra to win16.3%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,696 of 2,854 predictions were correct (59.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Malta win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Malta

Attack: Malta score below the league average (43% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Andorra concede 41% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Andorra

Attack: Andorra score below the league average (67% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Malta concede 46% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.