Montenegro–Türkiye

3–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Tuesday, 19 November 2024 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Gradski, Nikšić

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 23%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Urs Schnyder, Switzerland→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.7%: “Türkiye to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.6%.
The highest double chance value is 77.3% (X2 — draw or Türkiye win).
These values were computed from 4,628 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Montenegro to win22.7%

Draw26.6%

Türkiye to win50.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,836 of 3,546 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Montenegro win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Montenegro

Attack: Montenegro score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Türkiye concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Türkiye

Attack: Türkiye score above the league average (40% more).

Opponent's defence: Montenegro's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.