Wales–Iceland

4–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Tuesday, 19 November 2024 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Antonio Nobre, Portugal→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.0%: “Wales to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.6%.
The highest double chance value is 78.6% (1X — Wales win or draw).
These values were computed from 4,628 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Wales to win51.0%

Draw27.6%

Iceland to win21.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,836 of 3,546 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Wales win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Wales

Attack: Wales score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Iceland's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Iceland

Attack: Iceland score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Wales concede 30% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.