Sweden–Azerbaijan

6–0

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 19 November 2024 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Strawberry Arena, Solna

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Paweł Raczkowski, Poland→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 86.1%: “Sweden to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 10.7%.
The highest double chance value is 96.9% (1X — Sweden win or draw).
These values were computed from 4,628 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sweden to win86.1%

Draw10.7%

Azerbaijan to win3.1%

When the model has said 85–90% in the past, 271 of 308 predictions were correct (88.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Sweden win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Sweden

Attack: Sweden score above the league average (47% more).

Opponent's defence: Azerbaijan concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Azerbaijan

Attack: Azerbaijan score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sweden concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.