Liechtenstein–San Marino

1–3

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 18 November 2024 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Rheinpark Stadion, Vaduz

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 22%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Jeremie Pignard, France→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.3%: “Liechtenstein to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 33.0%.
The highest double chance value is 78.4% (1X — Liechtenstein win or draw).
These values were computed from 4,604 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Liechtenstein to win45.3%

Draw33.0%

San Marino to win21.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,111 of 4,488 predictions were correct (47.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Liechtenstein win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Liechtenstein

Attack: Liechtenstein score below the league average (76% fewer).

Opponent's defence: San Marino concede 145% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

San Marino

Attack: San Marino score below the league average (77% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Liechtenstein concede 101% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.