Bulgaria–Belarus

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 18 November 2024 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Vasil Levski, Sofia

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Allard Lindhout, Netherlands→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.2%: “Bulgaria to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.2%.
The highest double chance value is 81.4% (1X — Bulgaria win or draw).
These values were computed from 4,604 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bulgaria to win52.2%

Draw29.2%

Belarus to win18.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,836 of 3,546 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Bulgaria win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Bulgaria

Attack: Bulgaria score below the league average (30% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Belarus's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Belarus

Attack: Belarus score below the league average (44% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Bulgaria's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.