Luxembourg–Northern Ireland

2–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Monday, 18 November 2024 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Elcin Masiyev, Azerbaijan→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.9%: “Northern Ireland to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.4%.
The highest double chance value is 70.3% (X2 — draw or Northern Ireland win).
These values were computed from 4,604 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Luxembourg to win29.7%

Draw30.4%

Northern Ireland to win39.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,123 of 5,759 predictions were correct (36.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Luxembourg win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Luxembourg

Attack: Luxembourg score below the league average (33% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Northern Ireland's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Northern Ireland

Attack: Northern Ireland score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Luxembourg concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.