Romania–Cyprus

4–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Monday, 18 November 2024 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Arena Naţională, Bucureşti

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Luca J. Pairetto, Italy→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 85.5%: “Romania to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 11.5%.
The highest double chance value is 97.0% (1X — Romania win or draw).
These values were computed from 4,604 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Romania to win85.5%

Draw11.5%

Cyprus to win3.0%

When the model has said 85–90% in the past, 271 of 308 predictions were correct (88.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Romania win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Romania

Attack: Romania score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cyprus concede 56% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Cyprus

Attack: Cyprus score below the league average (37% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Romania concede 29% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.