Serbia–Denmark

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 18 November 2024 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Felix Zwayer, Germany→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.2%: “Serbia to win”. Second comes “Denmark to win” at 31.4%.
The highest double chance value is 70.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 4,604 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Serbia to win39.2%

Draw29.5%

Denmark to win31.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,123 of 5,759 predictions were correct (36.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Serbia win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Serbia

Attack: Serbia score above the league average (44% more).

Opponent's defence: Denmark concede 46% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Denmark

Attack: Denmark score above the league average (43% more).

Opponent's defence: Serbia concede 31% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.