Spain–Switzerland

3–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 18 November 2024 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Bastian Dankert, Germany→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 77.9%: “Spain to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 15.8%.
The highest double chance value is 93.7% (1X — Spain win or draw).
These values were computed from 4,604 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Spain to win77.9%

Draw15.8%

Switzerland to win6.3%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 753 of 933 predictions were correct (80.7%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Spain win or draw93.7%

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Spain

Attack: Spain score 119% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Switzerland concede 29% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Switzerland

Attack: Switzerland score above the league average (50% more).

Opponent's defence: Spain concede 58% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.