Croatia–Portugal

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Monday, 18 November 2024 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Poljud, Split

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 3.7% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Davide Massa, Italy→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.5%: “Portugal to win”. Second comes “Croatia to win” at 33.7%.
The highest double chance value is 71.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 4,604 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Croatia to win33.7%

Draw28.8%

Portugal to win37.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,123 of 5,759 predictions were correct (36.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Croatia win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Croatia

Attack: Croatia score above the league average (49% more).

Opponent's defence: Portugal concede 49% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Portugal

Attack: Portugal score 100% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Croatia concede 41% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.