Latvia–Armenia

1–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 November 2024 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 32%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Georgi Kabakov, Bulgaria→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.1%: “Latvia to win”. Second comes “Armenia to win” at 31.8%.
The highest double chance value is 72.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 4,592 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Latvia to win40.1%

Draw28.0%

Armenia to win31.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,399 of 5,395 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Latvia win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Latvia

Attack: Latvia score below the league average (37% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Armenia concede 42% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Armenia

Attack: Armenia score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Latvia concede 38% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.