Netherlands–Hungary

4–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 16 November 2024 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Jesus Gil Manzano, Spain→

4.72

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 70.0%: “Netherlands to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.8%.
The highest double chance value is 89.8% (1X — Netherlands win or draw).
These values were computed from 4,585 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Netherlands to win70.0%

Draw19.8%

Hungary to win10.2%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,059 of 1,563 predictions were correct (67.8%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Netherlands win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Netherlands

Attack: Netherlands score 94% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Hungary concede 29% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Hungary

Attack: Hungary score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Netherlands concede 37% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.