Sweden–Slovakia

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 16 November 2024 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Strawberry Arena, Solna

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Mykola Balakin, Ukraine→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.0%: “Sweden to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.3%.
The highest double chance value is 79.2% (1X — Sweden win or draw).
These values were computed from 4,585 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sweden to win53.0%

Draw26.3%

Slovakia to win20.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,836 of 3,546 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Sweden win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Sweden

Attack: Sweden score above the league average (46% more).

Opponent's defence: Slovakia concede 29% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Slovakia

Attack: Slovakia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sweden concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.