Andorra–Moldova

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 16 November 2024 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadi de la FAF, Andorra

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Bulat Saryev, Kazakhstan→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.6%: “Moldova to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 31.6%.
The highest double chance value is 74.2% (X2 — draw or Moldova win).
These values were computed from 4,581 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Andorra to win25.8%

Draw31.6%

Moldova to win42.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,399 of 5,395 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Andorra win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Andorra

Attack: Andorra score below the league average (66% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Moldova concede 34% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Moldova

Attack: Moldova score below the league average (32% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Andorra concede 42% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.