Türkiye–Wales

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 16 November 2024 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu, Kayseri

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Juan Martinez Munuera, Spain→

4.35

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.2%: “Türkiye to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.7%.
The highest double chance value is 81.9% (1X — Türkiye win or draw).
These values were computed from 4,581 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Türkiye to win56.2%

Draw25.7%

Wales to win18.1%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,696 of 2,854 predictions were correct (59.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Türkiye win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Türkiye

Attack: Türkiye score above the league average (44% more).

Opponent's defence: Wales concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Wales

Attack: Wales score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Türkiye concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.