Azerbaijan–Estonia

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 16 November 2024 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Şəhər stadionu, Qəbələ

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

John Beaton, Scotland→

4.33

yellows per match

0.39

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.8%: “Azerbaijan to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.9%.
The highest double chance value is 81.6% (1X — Azerbaijan win or draw).
These values were computed from 4,580 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Azerbaijan to win55.8%

Draw25.9%

Estonia to win18.4%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,696 of 2,854 predictions were correct (59.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Azerbaijan win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Azerbaijan

Attack: Azerbaijan score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Estonia concede 32% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Estonia

Attack: Estonia score below the league average (39% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Azerbaijan concede 28% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.