San Marino–Gibraltar

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Friday, 15 November 2024 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Olimpico di Serravalle, Serravalle

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 0.7% between the top twodouble chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Igor Pajač, Croatia→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 33.9%: “Gibraltar to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 33.2%.
The highest double chance value is 67.1% (X2 — draw or Gibraltar win).
These values were computed from 4,568 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

San Marino to win32.9%

Draw33.2%

Gibraltar to win33.9%

When the model has said 30–35% in the past, 2,700 of 8,629 predictions were correct (31.3%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — San Marino win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

San Marino

Attack: San Marino score below the league average (78% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Gibraltar concede 124% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Gibraltar

Attack: Gibraltar score below the league average (69% fewer).

Opponent's defence: San Marino concede 143% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.