Romania–Kosovo

3–0

Kick-off: Friday, 15 November 2024 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Arena Naţională, Bucureşti

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

M. Krogh→

4.05

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.3%: “Romania to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.7%.
The highest double chance value is 83.0% (1X — Romania win or draw).
These values were computed from 4,568 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Romania to win57.3%

Draw25.7%

Kosovo to win17.0%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,696 of 2,854 predictions were correct (59.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Romania win or draw

12 — any result other than a draw74.3%

X2 — draw or Kosovo win42.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.7%).

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Romania

Attack: Romania score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Kosovo's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Kosovo

Attack: Kosovo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Romania concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Ratings were computed from 4568 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 72 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.