Northern Ireland–Belarus

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 15 November 2024 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Windsor Park, Belfast

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Luís Godinho, Portugal→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.6%: “Northern Ireland to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.7%.
The highest double chance value is 86.3% (1X — Northern Ireland win or draw).
These values were computed from 4,568 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Northern Ireland to win60.6%

Draw25.7%

Belarus to win13.7%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,274 of 2,042 predictions were correct (62.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Northern Ireland win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Northern Ireland

Attack: Northern Ireland score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Belarus's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Belarus

Attack: Belarus score below the league average (43% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Northern Ireland's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.