Denmark–Spain

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Friday, 15 November 2024 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Parken Stadium, Copenhagen

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Rade Obrenovič, Slovenia→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.5%: “Spain to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.6%.
The highest double chance value is 72.1% (X2 — draw or Spain win).
These values were computed from 4,568 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Denmark to win27.9%

Draw29.6%

Spain to win42.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,399 of 5,395 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Denmark win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Denmark

Attack: Denmark score above the league average (43% more).

Opponent's defence: Spain concede 58% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Spain

Attack: Spain score 117% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Denmark concede 48% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.