Switzerland–Serbia

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 15 November 2024 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Letzigrund, Zürich

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Clement Turpin, France→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.1%: “Switzerland to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.5%.
The highest double chance value is 75.6% (1X — Switzerland win or draw).
These values were computed from 4,568 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Switzerland to win49.1%

Draw26.5%

Serbia to win24.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,111 of 4,488 predictions were correct (47.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Switzerland win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Switzerland

Attack: Switzerland score 52% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Serbia concede 31% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Serbia

Attack: Serbia score above the league average (45% more).

Opponent's defence: Switzerland concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.