Cyprus–Lithuania

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 15 November 2024 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Nenad Minaković, Serbia→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.2%: “Cyprus to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.4%.
The highest double chance value is 75.6% (1X — Cyprus win or draw).
These values were computed from 4,567 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cyprus to win47.2%

Draw28.4%

Lithuania to win24.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,111 of 4,488 predictions were correct (47.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Cyprus win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Cyprus

Attack: Cyprus score below the league average (39% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Lithuania concede 43% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Lithuania

Attack: Lithuania score below the league average (45% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Cyprus concede 55% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.