France–Israel

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 14 November 2024 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade de France, Saint-Denis

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 4%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Tobias Stieler, Germany→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 95.1%: “France to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 4.3%.
The highest double chance value is 99.4% (1X — France win or draw).
These values were computed from 4,554 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

France to win95.1%

Draw4.3%

Israel to win0.6%

Double chance

1X — France win or draw99.4%

12 — any result other than a draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

France

Attack: France score 95% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Israel concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Israel

Attack: Israel score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: France concede 53% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.