Belgium–Italy

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 14 November 2024 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 22%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Petrescu Radu Marian, Romania→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.6%: “Belgium to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.9%.
The highest double chance value is 78.5% (1X — Belgium win or draw).
These values were computed from 4,554 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Belgium to win51.6%

Draw26.9%

Italy to win21.5%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,836 of 3,546 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Belgium win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Belgium

Attack: Belgium score 77% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Italy concede 44% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Italy

Attack: Italy score 57% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Belgium concede 45% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.