Kazakhstan–Austria

0–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Thursday, 14 November 2024 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Marian Barbu, Romania→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 70.5%: “Austria to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.3%.
The highest double chance value is 89.8% (X2 — draw or Austria win).
These values were computed from 4,547 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kazakhstan to win10.2%

Draw19.3%

Austria to win70.5%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 941 of 1,254 predictions were correct (75.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Kazakhstan win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Kazakhstan

Attack: Kazakhstan score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Austria concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Austria

Attack: Austria score 60% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Kazakhstan concede 30% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.