Scotland–Portugal

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 15 October 2024 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Hampden Park, Glasgow

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 23%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Lawrence Visser, Belgium→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.6%: “Portugal to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.4%.
The highest double chance value is 84.0% (X2 — draw or Portugal win).
These values were computed from 4,520 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Scotland to win16.0%

Draw23.4%

Portugal to win60.6%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,274 of 2,042 predictions were correct (62.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Scotland win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Scotland

Attack: Scotland score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: Portugal concede 48% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Portugal

Attack: Portugal score 101% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Scotland's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.