Belarus–Luxembourg

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 15 October 2024 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: ZTE-Aréna, Zalaegerszeg

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Atilla Karaoglan, Türkiye→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.6%: “Belarus to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 31.3%.
The highest double chance value is 70.9% (1X — Belarus win or draw).
These values were computed from 4,520 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Belarus to win39.6%

Draw31.3%

Luxembourg to win29.1%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,123 of 5,759 predictions were correct (36.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Belarus win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Belarus

Attack: Belarus score below the league average (43% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Luxembourg concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Luxembourg

Attack: Luxembourg score below the league average (30% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Belarus's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.